Iran–US Ceasefire Deal Tentative; Strait of Hormuz Remains Pivotal Risk

A tentative agreement between Washington and Tehran would extend the ceasefire by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping, and establish a framework for nuclear negotiations — but neither side has formally finalized the memorandum. Brent crude held near $97.94/bbl, still roughly 9% below last month’s highs but more than a third above pre-war levels. Analysts at Sparta note that 10–11 million barrels per day remain shut-in for every day the Strait stays closed.

US equity markets ended May at all-time highs, with the Nasdaq up over 8% since end-April. However, June is historically the worst calendar month for stocks in a midterm election year, and analysts broadly expect near-term consolidation.

Broadcom Reports Tomorrow — The AI Infrastructure Verdict

Broadcom (AVGO) reports Q2 FY2026 earnings after Wednesday’s close, guiding for $22 billion in revenue (up 47% year-on-year) and AI semiconductor revenue of $10.7 billion, a 140% year-on-year increase. The company has beaten consensus estimates in seven consecutive quarters. Wall Street’s real focus is the Q3 AI guide — a number above $5.5 billion would be the primary bullish catalyst for the broader SOX complex. Options markets imply roughly an 8% move on the print. Citi analysts project Broadcom’s AI revenue will climb to approximately 81% of total sales by late fiscal 2028, as the company deepens its custom silicon relationships with Alphabet, Meta, and Apple.

Vera Rubin Ramp Accelerates — TSMC, SK Hynix, Micron in Full Production

NVIDIA is set to account for over 20% of TSMC’s 2026 revenue as the foundry enters volume production of Vera Rubin chips on its 3nm node. Foxconn, Quanta, and Wistron are expected to begin full-scale system and rack production in H2 2026, with mass shipments projected as early as Q3. At GTC Taipei, Jensen Huang unveiled the Vera CPU — NVIDIA’s first standalone data center microprocessor — targeting agentic AI workloads, delivering 1.8x the throughput of x86 architectures. SK Hynix’s 192GB SOCAMM2 memory module, customized for the platform, has entered mass production, offering more than double the bandwidth of traditional RDIMM configurations. Micron has simultaneously launched Vera Rubin-specific storage solutions.

China Memory Challengers Accelerate; CXMT Revenue Up 719% YoY

China’s AI funding cycle is generating structural changes in global memory markets. CXMT — China’s leading DRAM manufacturer — reported Q1 2026 revenue growth of 719% year-on-year to 50.8 billion yuan, swinging from a net loss to a 33 billion yuan profit, with global DRAM market share rising from 5% in 2024 to 7.7% by end-2025. YMTC has simultaneously initiated IPO tutoring as both companies progress toward STAR Market listings. Across China’s AI ecosystem, leading model developers, chipmakers, and internet platforms are running simultaneous fundraising rounds as valuations surge in alignment with US technology peers.