The week of 2–6 June delivered a sharp reset for AI-exposed equities after what had been a near-uninterrupted rally since early 2026. A guidance miss from Broadcom, a hotter-than-expected May jobs report, and renewed Iran-Strait of Hormuz tensions combined to erase approximately $1 trillion in semiconductor market capitalisation on Friday alone. The Nasdaq posted its worst single session since April 2025. Yet the macro thesis for AI infrastructure spending remains structurally intact — and the week ahead may be the most consequential of the year.
Markets opened the week on a constructive note. The S&P 500 crossed 7,600 for the first time on Monday, driven by NVIDIA’s announcement of a new AI chip for personal computing (+6.2% that session) and Dell (+10.7%). JOLTS data showed job openings rising 4.6% in April to 7.6 million — a near two-year high — signalling labour market resilience despite AI-adjacent layoffs.
The inflection came Wednesday evening when Broadcom reported fiscal Q2 2026 results. Revenue beat at $22.19 billion against a $22.13 billion consensus, and non-GAAP EPS of $2.44 exceeded the $2.39 estimate. But AI chip sales guidance for Q3 came in at $16 billion — below the $17.2 billion analyst expectation — and the company declined to raise its full-year AI semiconductor forecast. The reaction was severe: AVGO fell 14% on Thursday and a further 7.9% on Friday, closing the week at $385.73.
Friday’s May non-farm payrolls report — showing 172,000 jobs added, well above forecasts — compressed the probability of near-term rate relief further. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.5% and the 30-year returned above 5%, reigniting rate-sensitivity concerns across the growth complex. The Nasdaq closed Friday at 25,709 for a weekly decline of 4.7%. The VIX surged 34% to close above 20.
This is a sentiment correction, not a demand collapse. Broadcom’s $16 billion Q3 AI chip guidance is exceptional in absolute terms — the miss was against elevated expectations, not against any fundamental weakening. TSMC’s CEO separately warned this week that chip supply cannot meet AI demand for years. The structural capex cycle remains intact; the market is resetting expectations to a more sustainable gradient. The critical test is May CPI on June 10: if energy’s contribution moderates (Brent fell ~19% in May), a cooler print could provide the relief valve that restores risk appetite ahead of the June 16–17 FOMC meeting.
Oil’s role in the week’s volatility cannot be understated. Brent had fallen nearly 20% from 2026 peaks through late May as US-Iran ceasefire negotiations generated cautious optimism. That narrative reversed sharply on June 2 when Iran’s state media reported that Tehran was halting negotiations with Washington and threatening to fully close the Strait of Hormuz — through which approximately 20% of global petroleum flows. Oil prices jumped more than 7% on that report.
The backdrop: a fragile ceasefire agreed in April has been repeatedly stressed by ongoing Israeli operations in Lebanon and Gaza. Iran’s precondition — full Israeli withdrawal — has not been met, and the diplomatic window that appeared in late May has narrowed. Senior advisors now suggest Brent is unlikely to fall below $90 “for the next couple of months” under any realistic near-term scenario, with infrastructure damage across Gulf refineries and pipelines adding a structural floor even if the Strait partially reopens.
Sustained oil at $90–100 is structurally inflationary in the context of a US economy already running headline CPI at 3.8%. It constrains Fed optionality, supports energy sector positioning (XOM, XLE, SLB), and creates margin pressure across AI infrastructure via data center power costs — a dynamic TSMC itself flagged this week as forcing rethinks of chip design priorities. Energy and AI power infrastructure are now linked macro variables, not separate trades.
The SpaceX IPO roadshow launched on June 4 — accelerated from the originally planned week-of-June-8 start following a faster-than-expected SEC review. Pricing is scheduled for Thursday June 11 after market close, with Nasdaq trading beginning Friday June 12 under the ticker SPCX.
SpaceX is targeting a fixed offer price of $135 per share — bypassing the conventional price-range-then-narrow process — for a raise of approximately $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation. If completed at those terms, it would be the largest IPO in history by both measure, surpassing Saudi Aramco’s $29.4 billion 2019 offering more than 2.5 times over. Approximately 30% of the offering is allocated to retail platforms including Robinhood, Fidelity, and Charles Schwab.
Key risk context from the S-1: SpaceX reported a GAAP net loss of $4.94 billion for full-year 2025 (including $3 billion in Starship R&D and costs from the xAI integration), and a $4.28 billion net loss in Q1 2026 alone. The accumulated deficit stands at $41.3 billion. At $1.75 trillion on $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, SPCX would trade at approximately 93.7 times trailing revenue on day one — a multiple that requires sustained execution across Starlink, the launch business, and the xAI integration simultaneously. Morningstar’s independent valuation stands at $780 billion, representing a 55% discount to the IPO target.
The valuation debate misses the point of why SPCX trades at a premium to any conventional model: it is the convergence of the world’s most advanced reusable launch infrastructure, the only commercially profitable satellite internet constellation at scale (Starlink), and post-merger exposure to xAI’s Grok ecosystem — all under a single equity structure with a founder who has unparalleled access to US government defence and intelligence contracts. The Morningstar $780 billion fair value is a DCF built on today’s numbers. The bull case for SPCX is not today’s numbers. The critical monitoring point: whether the first-day market print clears $135, and whether the Nasdaq-100 fast-track rule (eligible after 15 trading days under the May 2026 Nasdaq rule change) generates passive index demand. A meaningful pop would reset sentiment across the broader space and satellite supply chain — including Taiwan-listed names in our coverage universe.