US-Iran Deal Signals Hormuz Reopening — Markets Stage Broad Recovery
Thursday’s session was driven by a single geopolitical signal: President Trump canceled planned US strikes on Iran and indicated a deal is close to finalization. Trump told reporters a signing could occur in Europe within days, with Vice President JD Vance leading the US delegation. He confirmed that lifting the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz would form part of any agreement.
Iran has not officially confirmed the terms. Ongoing military exchanges — including US strikes on Iranian radar sites on June 10 followed by Iranian missile responses across the Gulf region — underscore the fragility of the ceasefire. Qatar-mediated draft proposals on Hormuz navigation and nuclear issues remain in circulation, though Iran has tied broader agreement to Israeli operations in Lebanon.
Markets responded sharply. The S&P 500 recovered 1.4% after two consecutive down sessions, the VIX fell nearly 11%, and Brent crude slid to $90.64 — down from a May peak above $118 — as futures priced an increasing probability of Strait reopening. Late-session oil slid further toward $86 in after-hours trading.
The market is pricing a high-probability Hormuz resolution that remains unconfirmed on the Iranian side. May CPI already hit a three-year high of 4.2% and May PPI set a data-series record at 6.5% annualised — both driven by the oil supply shock. If a deal is signed and the Strait reopens, the June inflation data would see a material reversal, reducing pressure on the Federal Reserve. The counterfactual — a deal collapse over the weekend — would re-price energy risk sharply. Investors should assess both scenarios against their existing positions in energy, rate-sensitive assets, and defense. The asymmetry in oil-levered names has narrowed significantly as Brent approaches $90.
SPCX Debuts Today — SpaceX Raises $75 Billion in Largest IPO in History
SpaceX begins trading today on Nasdaq under ticker SPCX at a fixed price of $135 per share, implying a valuation of approximately $1.77 trillion. The company raised $75 billion through 555.6 million new shares — the largest capital raise in IPO history, exceeding Saudi Aramco’s 2019 record. Elon Musk retains over 82% voting control after the offering. Goldman Sachs led a 21-bank syndicate including Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, and JPMorgan.
A notable structural feature: SpaceX reserved approximately 30% of public shares for retail investors — well above the typical 5–10% allocation — making this one of the most retail-accessible mega-cap IPOs on record. Demand significantly exceeded supply during the roadshow, raising the likelihood of pro-rata allocations across broker platforms.
A critical post-listing calendar event: Nasdaq amended its index inclusion rules in May 2026, shortening the waiting period to 15 trading days for megacap IPOs among the 40 largest nonfinancial companies. Based on today’s listing date, SPCX becomes eligible for Nasdaq-100 inclusion on or around July 7, 2026 — creating a structural buying event as index-tracking funds and ETFs are required to rebalance. Investors should note that a friends-and-family carve-out of up to $3.75 billion in unlocked stock could be sold into today’s open, adding volatility to the first session.
The SpaceX IPO is a capital markets event with secondary supply chain implications that extend well beyond the SPCX ticker itself. The Tier 1 and Tier 2 Korean, Taiwanese, and contracted satellite component suppliers that form SpaceX’s hardware ecosystem now have a publicly traded anchor customer. The Nasdaq-100 inclusion timeline — approximately July 7 — represents a structurally significant passive inflow event that is independent of any fundamental view on SpaceX’s valuation. Three lenses apply: Technical — today’s open price relative to $135 sets the reference frame for momentum; Commercial — Starlink’s reported profitability underpins the long-term demand story for the Asian supply chain; Regulatory — Senator Warren’s SEC delay request was not actioned, confirming the offering proceeds on schedule.
Semiconductor Complex Extends Rebound; AMAT Expands Singapore Footprint
After the SOXX ETF fell roughly 10% last Friday following Broadcom’s disappointing guidance, the broader semiconductor complex staged a multi-day recovery. Intel surged over 11% Monday and added another 4.5% Thursday after Bank of America upgraded the stock from underperform to buy, citing higher confidence in Intel’s foundry capacity to serve leading-edge wafer demand and the emerging agentic CPU market. Applied Materials extended gains to approximately 8.6% over the rebound period, while ASML added 6.5% and Micron climbed 9.9%.
The Applied Materials Singapore story is strategically significant for Asia supply chain intelligence. The company opened its new US$500 million Tampines Campus in Singapore on June 9, more than doubling its advanced cleanroom capacity in the country. The facility, described as already operating at volume production, is focused on serving chipmakers expanding to meet AI-driven demand. Applied Materials simultaneously raised its 2026 semiconductor equipment growth outlook to above 30%, supported by eight-quarter customer order visibility — an unusually long forward window for a cyclical equipment maker.
South Korean memory names recovered in parallel: SK Hynix climbed 6.44% and Samsung Electronics gained 3.38% Thursday. Tokyo Electron advanced nearly 6% and Advantest added over 1%, extending the equipment maker rally into Japan. Seoul Semiconductor jumped more than 12%.
Three lenses on the AMAT Singapore expansion: Technical — the stock’s 20-day moving average has been breached to the upside and analyst targets are converging toward the $570–$650 range; price action has recovered but remains below the 52-week high. Commercial — booking visibility into 2028 and a more than 30% equipment growth outlook for 2026 position AMAT as a primary beneficiary of the AI infrastructure buildout cycle; Singapore’s neutral-ground status for US equipment makers serving Taiwanese and Korean fabs is increasingly important as export control complexity grows. Regulatory — the EDA and Singapore Economic Development Board’s public endorsement of the Tampines Campus signals continued government support for semiconductor manufacturing investment in the city-state, which matters for supply chain resilience planning.
The caution flag: S&P 500 tech stocks remain down nearly 10% over the past five sessions. Chip rebounds this month have not sustained momentum beyond one to two days. Sector fundamentals are constructive; near-term price action remains vulnerable to macro re-escalation.
PPI Sets Record as Hormuz Oil Shock Works Through US Price System
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Thursday that the May Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.1%, with the 12-month rate accelerating to 6.5% — the highest reading since November 2022. This followed Wednesday’s May CPI print of 4.2% headline, the fastest consumer-level inflation in three years. Together, the two reports document an oil supply shock originating at the Strait of Hormuz working its way through the US price system from producer to consumer.
The most striking data point within the PPI report: final demand goods prices jumped 2.8% in May, the largest single-month increase since the data series began in December 2009 — surpassing all pandemic-era and post-Ukraine-invasion readings. CME FedWatch futures now assign zero probability to a rate cut in 2026, reversing the earlier consensus for at least one quarter-point reduction. Rate increases are now discussed as a scenario by several economists.
An important divergence within the energy data: natural gas fell 18.2% at the unprocessed level, underscoring that this is an oil-specific shock, not a broad energy event. Domestic gas is abundant and disconnected from Hormuz disruption risk.
The inflation picture is mechanically bifurcated: oil-driven headline inflation at multi-year highs versus core monthly readings that remain more contained. The Federal Reserve faces a credibility problem: it characterised 2021’s inflation as transitory and spent two years repairing the damage. Repeating that framing now with PPI at a 16-year monthly record is institutionally difficult. However, the data also supports a wait-and-see posture if the Strait of Hormuz reopens — gas prices have already fallen roughly $0.30/gallon from their peak, and futures markets suggest a meaningful drop in energy CPI by the June data release. The rate path is binary on geopolitics. Investors should assess rate-sensitive holdings — including duration-heavy fixed income, utilities, and real estate — in the context of the Iran deal timeline rather than the inflation data in isolation.
Asia Tech Rally: Seoul Memory Names Lead, Shanghai and Shenzhen Recover
Asian semiconductor and technology markets staged a broad recovery on Thursday in step with the Wall Street rebound. South Korean memory chip names led: SK Hynix advanced 6.44% and Samsung Electronics gained 3.38%, while Seoul Semiconductor jumped more than 12%. The move followed a strong Wall Street session in which the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.6% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose more than 5%, reversing Monday’s broad sector selloff.
Japan’s semiconductor equipment makers also advanced: Tokyo Electron rose nearly 6%, Advantest added over 1%, and Renesas Electronics gained 2.5%. SoftBank Group extended its recent decline, falling 2%, diverging from the broader tech recovery. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed up 1.28% to 4,010, while the Shenzhen Component advanced 3.02% to 15,269.
The SK Hynix and Samsung recovery is supply chain signal, not noise. Both companies are Tier 1 suppliers in the AI memory stack — HBM and high-density DRAM — and their price action tracks AI capex demand expectations more directly than most headline indices. A sustained recovery in Korean memory names through the SPCX IPO week would be a constructive signal for the broader AI infrastructure demand thesis. The divergence of SoftBank — which holds a large Vision Fund AI portfolio — warrants monitoring: it may reflect profit-taking on AI exposure rather than a fundamental shift. China’s Shenzhen Composite outperforming Shanghai (3.02% vs 1.28%) is consistent with tech-weighted recovery; Shenzhen has a higher concentration of semiconductor and AI-adjacent names including Huawei supply chain components.
Three Scenarios for the Week Ahead
Iran deal signed. Hormuz reopening announced. Oil moves toward $80. Inflation narrative reverses for June data. SPCX holds above $150. Chip complex extends recovery. S&P pushes toward 7,500.
Deal remains imminent but unsigned through the weekend. SPCX volatile on debut — strong open, intraday consolidation. Chips hold Thursday’s gains but no continuation. S&P consolidates 7,300–7,400. Oil ranges $88–$94.
Deal collapses over nuclear terms or Israel-Lebanon linkage. Oil reprices above $95. PPI narrative reignites ahead of July data. SPCX trades below $135. Nasdaq gives back Thursday’s gains.